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NERSC 3 Greenbook

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Expecting some slowdown in the progress of technology:

Workstations capable of a 0.6 gigaFLOPS or more with 0.4 gigawords of RAM and about 1 terabytes of mass storage will be available for about $200,000. The major limitation will be the cost of memory. Optical memory, even for mass storage, will still be in the future.

Local area networks with bandwidths of gigabits/sec should be commercially available, albeit expensive. Research testbeds will be running at 10-50 gigabits/sec.

Compute servers, based on symmetric multiprocessing, capable of 20-40 gigaFLOPS with 20 gigawords of RAM will cost $2-3 million. Associated storage servers will have 10-25 terabytes of mass storage for $1-2 million. The major limitation in the compute servers, other than memory, will be interprocessor communications, and this will keep the class of machine from scaling to more than 16-32 processors. Mass storage devices will still primarily be magnetic.

Wide area networks with bandwidths of OC/12 will be numerous but driven by edutainment requirements. The technology and the politics/funding will be under different paradigms than today. For example, communications could be through stripped ports provided by a wireless communications vendor into the communications cloud, or use of Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Networks (RAIN). The limitations on the capabilities are difficult to predict, but it is likely that there will still be substantial problems with security, authentication and verification.

Massively parallel processors, based on vector processing units, capable of a teraFLOPS or more with about 0.5-1.0 terawords of main memory and 100-200 terabytes of mass storage will be available for a cost of about $60 million. The major limitation will be the cost of memory and interprocessor communications. The latter has caused the favored architecture to go toward more efficient design involving vector processing and emphasis on very high bandwidth access to a (virtual) shared memory with 8000 or less processors and high I/O bandwidth to mass storage.


NERSC 3 Greenbook

next up previous contents
Next: Target for Energy Research Up: The Nature of Computing/Communications Previous: The Nature of Computing/Communications
Rick A Kendall
7/13/1998